Bitcoin Retail Activity Returns After 4-Month Decline

The CryptoQuant analyst noted that on-chain transaction volumes of up to $10,000鈥攁 key indicator of retail investment鈥攈ave increased by approximately 13% in the past 30 days.

Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins.

The analyst further explained that the increase in small investor activity is typically more sensitive to market sentiment and news than fundamental factors. Additionally, it provides an early indicator of capital flows into the Bitcoin network.

Notably, this increase in small investor activity comes at a time when Bitcoin鈥檚 price has seen constant increase in the past week, with the cryptocurrency recently attempting to reclaim the $70,000 mark.

An Outlook On BTC’s Price鈥?2% Rally Next?

The crypto asset reached a high of $69,431 earlier today but has since fallen by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, bringing the current price down to $66,951. Despite this slight dip, market sentiment among analysts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential.

One notable analyst, Javon Marks, recently took to X to express his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Marks highlighted a potential 72% price increase that could push Bitcoin to $116,000 or higher.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been working around a key price level of $67,559. Despite the recent pullback, several bullish patterns鈥攕uch as Hidden Bullish Divergences鈥攕uggest that Bitcoin may soon break above this level. If Bitcoin successfully crosses this threshold, it could聽increase聽price movement toward $116,652.

Back to the basics for #Bitcoin (BTC) again and a >72% move to $116,000+ still looks likely !

In this setup, we see Bitcoin working on a key level at $67,559, after a monumental, more than 333% climb to reach + break above it before pulling back since March.

Now, during this鈥?//t.co/iocZrLlRGx pic.twitter.com/XCrjd56w3W

鈥?JAVONMARKS (@JavonTM1) October 21, 2024

Who Led the Charge?

Notably, the renewed confidence in Bitcoin products mirrors earlier this year’s positive sentiment. Last week鈥檚 inflows were the largest since March, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.6 billion as Bitcoin reached its all-time high above the $73,000 price mark.

This strong demand suggests that investors remain bullish on Bitcoin鈥檚 long-term prospects, despite recent market fluctuations. While Bitcoin stole the spotlight, other cryptocurrencies also experienced inflows last week although way lesser than that of BTC.

Ethereum-based products attracted $58 million in net inflows, while Solana, Litecoin, and XRP-based funds saw smaller inflows of $2.4 million, $1.7 million, and $700,000, respectively.

What Prompted The Surge In Crypto Inflow?

According to CoinShares, this surge in inflows is tied to growing optimism about the upcoming US elections, with a potential Republican victory driving investor sentiment.

We believe this renewed optimism stems from growing expectations of a Republican victory in the upcoming US elections, as they are generally viewed as more supportive of digital assets.

According to a recent聽CryptoQuant analysis, a聽key metric, “active address momentum,” paints a bullish picture for the cryptocurrency.

Active Address Momentum Signals Upward Market Structure

By applying a 30-day moving average (30DMA) and a 365-day moving average (365DMA) to this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst聽could assess the聽network’s growing momentum.

Bitcoin Rally To $90,000 In Sight?

Bitcoin’s recent price performance has added to the optimism among investors. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has surged by over 10%, and it has continued its upward trajectory, rising by an additional 1.98% in the past 24 hours to trade at $68,708 at the time of writing.

This upward movement has helped Bitcoin break through a major resistance zone on its daily chart, sparking predictions of even higher prices.

One notable prediction came from crypto analyst Javon Marks, who recently shared his outlook on X. Marks highlighted that Bitcoin has broken out of a 鈥渄escending broadening wedge鈥?pattern. Statistically, this pattern suggests that when the resisting line is broken, the price objective is reached in 81% of cases.

#Bitcoin (BTC) is now broken out of the displayed ‘descending broadening wedge’ pattern and statistics from this type of pattern states that in 81% of cases, the pattern’s price objective is reached when the resisting line is broken.

Bitcoin’s Price Objective:

$90,000-$96,000+ //t.co/lPZZtJm7pi pic.twitter.com/hudApLSlDj

鈥?JAVONMARKS (@JavonTM1) October 17, 2024

Why An Over 400% Rally Is Plausible For Dogecoin

Based on historical patterns, Marks revealed that Dogecoin may be in the early stages of a significant bull run, potentially heading toward a 431% price increase. Marks highlighted that Dogecoin could quickly reclaim its all-time high of $0.73905, supported by similar price behaviors seen in the past.

In Dogecoin’s case, Marks observed that DOGE had recently formed this falling wedge pattern and subsequently broken out to the upside.

DOGE Recent Price Performance And Outlook

Over the past few weeks, Dogecoin has shown gains, aligning with the bullish outlook shared by analysts. In the last 7 days alone, DOGE has surged by 23%, reaching a high of $0.135 in the early hours of today.

This performance is notable, as Dogecoin has maintained its upward momentum despite fluctuations in the broader cryptocurrency market. When writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.1333, representing a 9.5% increase in the past 24 hours.

In addition to Javon Marks鈥?analysis, another prominent figure in the crypto space, Trader Tardigrade, has also weighed in on Dogecoin鈥檚 recent market structure. In a post on X, Tardigrade noted that Dogecoin has transitioned from a downtrend to an uptrend.

#DOGECOIN market structure is obviously changed from downtrend to uptrend In the downtrend, $DOGE formed False Breakout and lower low afterwards. After a transition with a false breakout, but no more lower low, $DOGE created a Breakout with a higher low. It’s now making鈥?pic.twitter.com/cy9owb6Ydz

鈥?Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) October 18, 2024

Potential For Ethereum Rally And Longs Benefit

According to the data shared by Percival, Ethereum鈥檚 open interest stands at $9.6 billion, marking a 28.57% increase from August, although it is still below the $13 billion recorded in June.

This shift could drive more interest toward decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, making Ethereum more attractive for investors looking for long-term gains.

The convergence of the highest lows in the RSI suggests a potential for a less pronounced correction, estimated to be between 7% and 9%. This scenario favors long positions, with traders patiently waiting for a market rebound to confirm new highs and higher lows.

ETH鈥檚 Path To A Bullish Breakout

At the time of writing, Ethereum trades at $2,611, down slightly by 0.1% in the past 24 hours. This comes after a strong week where the cryptocurrency saw a 9.3% increase and a nearly 15% rise over the past month.

According to another prominent crypto analyst, Ali, Ethereum could be on the verge of a significant rally. In a recent post on X, Ali revealed that Ethereum has recently touched the lower boundary of a channel, a level that has historically led to an average 130% price surge.

Every bounce off this channel鈥檚 lower boundary has historically led to an average 130% price increase for #Ethereum.

If this pattern holds, a similar move could push $ETH to $6,000鈥攑rovided the key $2,300 support level stays intact. pic.twitter.com/CFpLrQWEih

鈥?Ali (@ali_charts) October 14, 2024

So far, despite ETH’s market’s volatility, the asset has managed to maintain its price above the critical $2,300 support level, which lends credibility to the theory that a bullish breakout could be on the way.

This insight comes from a CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, who highlighted the role of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in shaping the market stance.

Bitcoin Resilience At The $57,000 Level

Spot ETFs have emerged as a major instrument in the Bitcoin ecosystem, offering a regulated entry point for institutional investors. According to Kesmeci, the average cost of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has been a key support level throughout 2024, providing a foundation for the asset鈥檚 price stability.

This level is pegged at $57,000 and has held firm throughout the year, with only two significant exceptions. The $57,000 price level is significant because of its聽technical support and聽the psychological implications for Spot ETF investors.

Could the Average $BTC Spot ETF Cost (57K) Be the Most Crucial Support Level in the Bull Rally?

鈥淭he price of #Bitcoin managed to stay above this level throughout the year, with only two exceptions.鈥?鈥?By @burak_kesmeci

Full post //t.co/troZDKwKNw pic.twitter.com/IWqNJ2L6Kg

鈥?CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 16, 2024

Bitcoin鈥檚 price dipped below this support level twice in 2024. The first instance was in early August, driven by Japan鈥檚 market turbulence, and the second in September due to a sharp price correction.

Bitcoin Spot ETF investors proved, contrary to the expectations of many, that they are not weak hands.

Foundation Set For Positive Move

This suggests that Spot ETF investors have grown more comfortable with Bitcoin鈥檚 inherent volatility, recognizing its long-term potential.

As you can see from the chart above, the average cost of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has become perhaps the most crucial support level in the 2024 bull rally. With this long-term perspective, the contribution of Spot ETFs to the Bitcoin rally has laid a solid foundation for the potential developments in the market’s future.

According to recent data from IntoTheBlock, large Ethereum holders, often called whales, have been actively accumulating Ethereum over the past month.

The Quiet Accumulation Of ETH From Whales

In total, over 1.7 million ETH were accumulated during this period, with 175,000 ETH purchased in the last two days alone IntoTheBlock suggests that this strong accumulation behaviour from large holders typically indicates confidence in the asset鈥檚 long-term potential.

Over the past 30 days, ETH whale wallets have been actively accumulating, with net outflows recorded on only three days.

The large holder netflow indicator tracks when wallets holding more than 0.1% of the total supply are buying or selling.

In total, these wallets have鈥?pic.twitter.com/om1UM9tArf

鈥?IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) October 16, 2024

Ethereum Price Performance And Outlook

While large holders have been expressing confidence through their accumulation behavior, Ethereum鈥檚 price appears to be gradually reflecting this phenomenon. Over the past week, Ethereum has added around 5.9% to its value, reclaiming its ground above the $2,600 price mark.

In the last 24 hours, the asset has seen a slight increase of 1.3%, bringing its current trading price to $2,616, at the time of writing. Additionally, Ethereum’s daily trading volume has also increased significantly in the past week from below $14 billion last Wednesday to currently above $18 billion as of today.

Amid this price performance, crypto analyst CrediBULL shared his latest outlook on Ethereum. In a post on X, the analyst expressed concerns over Ethereum鈥檚 relative weakness against Bitcoin.

CrediBULL noted that while Ethereum showed some initial signs of strength, it failed to clear local highs during the most recent rally. This underperformance has led the analyst to believe that Ethereum may continue to struggle against Bitcoin in the short term.

Haven’t updated $ETH in a while. Has been showing considerable weakness against BTC recently (along with most alts).

While I had hoped for a short term window of outperformance before the final drop to sub 2k it doesn’t seem like we are going to get that at this time.

ETH鈥?pic.twitter.com/CZJOoElHp3

鈥?CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) October 15, 2024

With this uptick in activity, it is worth assessing Bitcoin to see what this development could spell for the asset’s price trajectory.

The Increase In Active Addresses

For context, the Bitcoin Active Address Momentum metric is used to track changes in the level of user activity on the network. By comparing monthly and yearly moving averages, the metric helps聽detect聽increased or decreased engagement patterns.

What This Surge In Active Addresses Means For Bitcoin

Historically, spikes in active addresses have been associated with increased demand, often preceding or occurring during bullish market cycles. This surge in user participation may signal a growing demand for Bitcoin, potentially fueling a more sustained upward movement in price.

Meanwhile, although Bitcoin’s price performance throughout the summer months was lackluster, increasing active addresses may catalyze a renewed bullish phase.

Network activity is often viewed as a key indicator of market sentiment and investor interest. The market may be gearing up for another expansion phase, with user engagement increasing. This could also impact other cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin鈥檚 price trends often influence the entire crypto market.

Regardless, this development has sparked fresh analyses from prominent crypto commentators, many of whom are now sharing their latest insights on the next target for Bitcoin following this pattern breakout.

Analysts Weigh In On Bitcoin Wedge Pattern Breakout

A CryptoQuant analyst, known by the pseudonym Papi, referred to the falling wedge pattern as the 2024 “nope zone” in a recent post. Papi stated, “2024’s Nope Zone is undefeated. For now. Will this time be different?”

He pointed out that this is the first time Bitcoin has retested the price successfully above the “nope zone” on a four-day chart. The analyst also mentioned聽that high open interest (OI) and ETF flows showed bullish signals, although net flows on derivative exchanges remained聽neutral.

Road to $90,000?

Despite the initial breakout, Bitcoin has faced a minor correction, trading at $66,047, up by 0.2% in the past 24 hours. This small pullback has not deterred analysts from making bullish predictions. Captain Faibik, another well-known crypto analyst, took to X to comment on Bitcoin鈥檚 price movement.

He noted, “So far, so good鈥?Bitcoin is once again heading towards the $68k crucial resistance. A successful wedge breakout could send Bitcoin to $88k-$90k in November.” Faibik remains optimistic, anticipating a larger move upwards if BTC can clear this key resistance level.

Similarly, another prominent analyst, RektCapital, shared his perspective on the current price action. RektCapital pointed to Bitcoin’s historical rejections from the downtrending channel top, noting that previous pullbacks were progressively deeper.

#BTC

Here are historical rejections from the Downtrending Channel Top (red) From mid-March, the rejections have resulted in progressively deeper pullbacks: Initially -17% followed by -22% then -26% then -29%

This current rejection is Bitcoin’s first chance to show that this鈥?//t.co/wXePIvVs5D pic.twitter.com/k2lMLje0yO

鈥?Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 15, 2024

This observation was shared in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighting a growing trend where whales鈥攍arge investors鈥攁re buying up Bitcoin from smaller, more “impatient investors.”

Retail Traders Exit While Whales Accumulate

These retail traders, often more reactive to short-term price fluctuations, have shown signs of impatience, reducing their positions as Bitcoin鈥檚 price failed to make any decisive moves in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, institutional investors are taking advantage of this period of low retail interest by steadily accumulating more Bitcoin. The CryptoQuant analyst noted that this is a typical pattern in which larger investors build their positions during times of market uncertainty.

Bullish Signal For Bitcoin Market?

It is worth noting that the accumulation by institutional investors could be a sign of future price action. As whales continue to buy up Bitcoin, retail selling pressure may soon exhaust itself, potentially creating an environment where prices begin to rise again.

The analyst concluded by stating that institutional investors are preparing for this sentiment shift, positioning themselves to distribute their holdings during the next price increase.