The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown.

Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator

In a new on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index.

The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA).

When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red).

At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top. However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA. However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash. While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark.