{"id":628603,"date":"2024-07-09T14:00:15","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T14:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/?p=628603"},"modified":"2024-07-09T12:53:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-09T12:53:00","slug":"if-history-repeats-bitcoin-price-crash-33-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/bitcoin\/if-history-repeats-bitcoin-price-crash-33-again\/","title":{"rendered":"If History Repeats, Bitcoin Price Could Crash 33% Again: Here&#8217;s Why"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin price is already down more than -22% since the mid-March high over $73,000. While BTC is currently stabilizing above $57,000 following the recent price crash, there could be even more downside ahead if history repeats, according to Jacob Canfield, a trading mentor at the Trading Mastery. Canfield&#8217;s latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/BTCUSDT\/MyMhRyYI-Will-the-2024-Yearly-Open-Be-The-Bottom-at-38-000-42-000\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">analysis<\/a> points to a potential further decline in the Bitcoin price, potentially reaching lows not seen since the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 33%<\/h2>\n<p>Canfield&#8217;s analysis on TradingView hinges on historical patterns observed in Bitcoin&#8217;s pricing trends. &#8220;Historically, Bitcoin loves to retest the yearly open levels,&#8221; Canfield notes. According to him, these retests can either confirm bearish or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-bull-run-economic-echoes-1930-1970-arthur-hayes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">bullish trends<\/a> but are a consistent feature in Bitcoin&#8217;s market behavior. Since 2017, each year&#8217;s opening price has been retested within the year, with the notable exceptions of 2023 and 2024 (thus far).<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/bitcoin-news\/massive-mt-gox-bitcoin-shift-unlikely-to-disrupt-prices-says-cryptoquant-ceo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Massive Mt. Gox Bitcoin Shift Unlikely To Disrupt Prices, Says CryptoQuant CEO<\/a><\/div>\n<p>\u201cSince 2017, the yearly open has been retested every year except 2023 and 2024,\u201d Canfield remarked. For instance, the bearish retest of the 2018 opening BTC price occurred right before the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/covid-19-as-a-bitcoin-trading-signal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">COVID-19 pandemic crash<\/a>, and similar patterns were observed in subsequent years. \u201cEven the 2019 yearly open at $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash,\u201d the crypto analyst added.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the 2020 yearly open was retested within the first 3 months of 2020. The 2021 opening price was also retested and marked the lowest point before a significant rally that led to a peak of $69,000, just before the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/ftx-scam-crypto-sam-bankman-fried-story\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">collapse of FTX<\/a>. \u201cThe 2022 Yearly open was a bearish retest similar to 2018 before the lows around $16,500. Similar to the 2021 yearly open retest giving us our bottom, this gave us our local top,\u201d Canfield observed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"related-reading-shortcode\">Related Reading: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-undervalued-now-industry-expert\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Is Bitcoin Undervalued Now? Industry Expert Decodes The Market State<\/a><\/div>\n<p>Looking ahead, the crypto analyst speculates about the potential bottom for Bitcoin in the coming months. \u201cHere is where it gets interesting. The 2023 and 2024 yearly opens have not been retested yet. The question is, do we form a bottom at the 2024 yearly open before more all time highs or do we capitulate all the way down to the 2023 yearly open at $16,500 like we did in 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Crucial Indicators To Watch<\/h2>\n<p>The answer may lie in several technical indicators that Canfield considers pivotal. First, Canfield mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator aligns closely with the projected yearly open for 2024, suggesting a higher likelihood of finding support in the $38,000 to $42,000 range. Notably, a price crash this low would mean another -33% for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/news\/long-term-bitcoin-holders-resist-selling-amid-recent-highs-what-this-signals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">BTC holders<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The second crucial indicator is the weekly 200 EMA\/MA Ribbon. This indicator is also converging around the 2024 opening price. It reinforces the potential for this level to act as a strong support zone. \u201cThis gives us a higher probability that we will form a bottom around that region and the 2023 yearly open may act like the 2017 yearly open and never get retested,\u201d Canfield speculates.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield&#8217;s analysis leaves room for various scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin&#8217;s market dynamics and the role of historical precedents in forecasting future trends. &#8220;Either way, I think this gives us a high likelihood target based on historical precedence for where we may find a local bottom,&#8221; he concludes, inviting further discussion and analysis from the community.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $57,479.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_628616\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-628616\" style=\"width: 3628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-628616 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?resize=3628%2C1675\" alt=\"Bitcoin price\" width=\"3628\" height=\"1675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=3628 3628w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=460 460w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=768 768w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=860 860w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=1536 1536w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=2048 2048w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=750 750w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=1140 1140w, https:\/\/www.shenyangcang.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BTCUSD_2024-07-09_13-50-31.png?w=3000 3000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-628616\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC needs to reclaim the 200-week EMA (blue line), 1-day chart | Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/HYw0EZhG\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">BTCUSD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-shortcode\">Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bitcoin price is already down more than -22% since the mid-March high over $73,000. While BTC is currently stabilizing above $57,000 following the recent price crash, there could be even more downside ahead if history repeats, according to Jacob Canfield, a trading mentor at the Trading Mastery. Canfield&#8217;s latest analysis points to a potential further decline in the Bitcoin price, potentially reaching lows not seen since the beginning of the year. Why Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 33% Canfield&#8217;s analysis on TradingView hinges on historical patterns observed in Bitcoin&#8217;s pricing trends. &#8220;Historically, Bitcoin loves to retest the yearly open levels,&#8221; Canfield notes. According to him, these retests can either confirm bearish or bullish trends but are a consistent feature in Bitcoin&#8217;s market behavior. Since 2017, each year&#8217;s opening price has been retested within the year, with the notable exceptions of 2023 and 2024 (thus far). Related Reading: Massive Mt. Gox Bitcoin Shift Unlikely To Disrupt Prices, Says CryptoQuant CEO \u201cSince 2017, the yearly open has been retested every year except 2023 and 2024,\u201d Canfield remarked. For instance, the bearish retest of the 2018 opening BTC price occurred right before the COVID-19 pandemic crash, and similar patterns were observed in subsequent years. \u201cEven the 2019 yearly open at $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash,\u201d the crypto analyst added. Moreover, the 2020 yearly open was retested within the first 3 months of 2020. The 2021 opening price was also retested and marked the lowest point before a significant rally that led to a peak of $69,000, just before the collapse of FTX. \u201cThe 2022 Yearly open was a bearish retest similar to 2018 before the lows around $16,500. Similar to the 2021 yearly open retest giving us our bottom, this gave us our local top,\u201d Canfield observed. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Undervalued Now? Industry Expert Decodes The Market State Looking ahead, the crypto analyst speculates about the potential bottom for Bitcoin in the coming months. \u201cHere is where it gets interesting. The 2023 and 2024 yearly opens have not been retested yet. The question is, do we form a bottom at the 2024 yearly open before more all time highs or do we capitulate all the way down to the 2023 yearly open at $16,500 like we did in 2019.\u201d Crucial Indicators To Watch The answer may lie in several technical indicators that Canfield considers pivotal. First, Canfield mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator aligns closely with the projected yearly open for 2024, suggesting a higher likelihood of finding support in the $38,000 to $42,000 range. Notably, a price crash this low would mean another -33% for BTC holders. The second crucial indicator is the weekly 200 EMA\/MA Ribbon. This indicator is also converging around the 2024 opening price. It reinforces the potential for this level to act as a strong support zone. \u201cThis gives us a higher probability that we will form a bottom around that region and the 2023 yearly open may act like the 2017 yearly open and never get retested,\u201d Canfield speculates. Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield&#8217;s analysis leaves room for various scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin&#8217;s market dynamics and the role of historical precedents in forecasting future trends. &#8220;Either way, I think this gives us a high likelihood target based on historical precedence for where we may find a local bottom,&#8221; he concludes, inviting further discussion and analysis from the community. At press time, BTC traded at $57,479. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":571,"featured_media":628605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5651],"tags":[428,656,679,680,6848,1119,1122,1144,39983],"class_list":["post-628603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-btc","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd","tag-jacob-canfield"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<title>If History Repeats, Bitcoin Could Crash 33% Again: Here&#039;s Why<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bitcoin price is already down more than -22% since the mid-March high over $73,000, but could crash even another -33%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake\u2019s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. 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